The LA Chargers are on the road in Week 5 as the team takes on the Cleveland Browns in a rematch of last year’s Instant Classic in Week 5. The Bolts won that game 47-42 at home and as great as it is to watch, Chargers fans are hoping for a less stressful game.
Both of these teams look different than they did a year ago. Under center for Cleveland this year is Jacoby Brissett, who will start until Deshaun Watson returns. As for the Chargers, the run defense has been rebuilt and hopes not to have the same kind of show as last season.
We’ve already given our picks for both the against the spread and the over/under and with the match fast approaching, now is the time to give away some winning prop bets for the contest.
Somehow that line has gone down to where it was originally at 24.5 points earlier in the week. The LA Chargers will be without Keenan Allen, which seems to scare off most bettors, but the team has learned to function without him on offense.
More importantly, all trends point to an easy win over the Chargers’ team total. Cleveland allowed an average of 23.8 points per game against the quarterback assortment of Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota. Two of those quarterbacks aren’t even starters anymore and the other two are probably the two worst starters in the league.
It’s hard to imagine an offense led by Justin Herbert scoring fewer runs than the Browns allow on average, especially since the Bolts have scored 24 or more points in three of four games. The only exception was Herbert’s first game after his rib injury.
Cleveland is going to beat the rock in this game and even though the Chargers take a big lead, the Browns aren’t going to deviate from the game plan. They see a perceived weakness in the Chargers, who also have a good secondary full of ball hawks.
Kevin Stefanski is a good coach and he knows what part of the defense the Browns should be challenging in this game. For this reason, Brissett’s underrun total seems the most likely. Brissett is averaging 207.5 passing yards per game this season.
It was actually at +850 earlier in the week and has fallen down to +550, which should tell you something. Donald Parham returns from injury and plays his first game of the season with the Chargers. Parham has great chemistry with Justin Herbert, especially in the red zone.
Gerald Everett potentially not playing in the game (or being limited if he is playing) is going to give Parham more of a chance to find the end zone. Keenan Allen not playing also helps Parham’s chances, as Allen is usually another red zone sellout.
Parham scored a touchdown against the Browns last season and with the added factors, +550 is pretty good value. He’s almost destined to score at least one touchdown in each of the next three games, so if you take him every game until he hits, you’ll be making a profit.
Parham’s choice is obviously less likely, but if you were to use these three Chargers-Browns props on FanDuel Sportsbook, you’d get odds of +1712 (17/1). A $20 bet would return $342.40.
Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.